The Trump administration should view energy not just as a resource, but as a strategic weapon in securing America’s position as the world’s leading superpower. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to put America first, strengthen our economy, and outmaneuver our adversaries.
The Strategic Importance of Energy in Global Geopolitics
Energy has long been a cornerstone of global power. Throughout history, access to energy resources has dictated the rise and fall of nations. From the oil crises of the 20th century to modern geopolitical rivalries, energy security has remained central to national strategy. The United States, once heavily dependent on foreign oil, is now uniquely positioned to wield energy as a tool of influence. With breakthroughs in shale technology, increased investment in green energy, and new discoveries of critical minerals, America stands at the forefront of a new energy paradigm. This shift offers a rare opportunity for the Trump administration to reshape global alliances, counter rival powers, and secure long-term U.S. interests. By embracing this new energy paradigm, the U.S. can dominate markets, protect national security, and secure its place atop the global hierarchy.
The Shale and Green Energy Revolution: Securing Supply Chains
The advent of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has unlocked vast shale reserves in the U.S., propelling it to become the world’s largest oil producer, with production reaching nearly 16.6 million barrels per day by late 2024. This surge has reduced reliance on foreign oil and allowed the U.S. to influence global oil markets directly. Meanwhile, aggressive investments in renewable technologies have positioned the U.S. as a leader in green energy, aligning with global sustainability goals and enhancing geopolitical leverage.
Additionally, discoveries of critical minerals, such as the 2.34 billion-ton rare earth deposit in Wyoming, are pivotal for reducing reliance on China’s near-monopoly over essential resources. By expanding domestic production and forging partnerships with allies like Australia and Canada, the U.S. can secure critical supply chains and bolster its clean energy industry.
Geopolitical Impacts and Policy Recommendations
Russia and Europe: Leveraging LNG to Diminish Russian Influence
Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues, which constitute nearly 45% of its federal budget. By maintaining high shale output and flooding global markets with oil, the Trump administration can continue to suppress prices, weakening Russia’s economic stability and limiting its ability to fund aggressive actions. This approach not only puts pressure on Moscow but also creates a geopolitical environment where Putin may have no choice but to come to the table, offering more favorable terms for U.S. and allied interests in Ukraine. Imagine a scenario where Russian economic desperation forces real negotiations — this is the kind of leverage America must wield to secure victory on its terms. This strategy, by exacerbating economic pressures on Moscow, could compel Putin to seek more favorable terms in negotiations, particularly regarding the conflict in Ukraine. With declining revenues and a shrinking war chest, Russia may find itself increasingly isolated and desperate for economic relief, creating an opening for diplomatic engagement. Coupled with ongoing sanctions, sustained U.S. energy dominance under the Trump administration can significantly strengthen the West’s negotiating position and hasten a resolution that aligns with American and European interests. This is how we win — by ensuring our adversaries have no economic breathing room to maneuver.
Increased U.S. LNG exports to Europe have already played a critical role in reducing the continent’s dependence on Russian energy. In 2022, U.S. LNG exports to Europe reached approximately 6.8 billion cubic feet per day, making the U.S. Europe’s largest LNG supplier. Strengthening LNG infrastructure and securing long-term contracts with European allies can further diminish Moscow’s leverage while enhancing transatlantic ties.
Policy Actions:
Expand LNG export capacity and develop new terminals in key regions.
Enhance energy partnerships with Europe, focusing on long-term supply agreements.
Maintain and strengthen sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to limit its economic options.
China: Securing Green Tech Supply Chains and Preventing Cyber Threats
China dominates 95% of the global supply of rare earth metals, essential for renewable energy technologies. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has further expanded its influence by securing control over critical infrastructure in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. To counter this, the Trump administration must prioritize securing its green supply chains and mitigating cybersecurity risks. If America fails to act, we risk allowing China to control the very infrastructure that powers our future, giving Beijing the ability to shut us down at will—a chilling prospect.
Reliance on Chinese technology presents significant cybersecurity concerns, as Chinese firms have been known to embed backdoors in critical infrastructure, enabling potential state-sponsored espionage or sabotage. For example, in 2018, security researchers uncovered vulnerabilities in Chinese-manufactured energy management systems used in Western grids, sparking fears of remote disruptions.
Policy Actions:
Accelerate investments in domestic clean tech production to reduce dependency on Chinese imports.
Forge critical mineral partnerships with resource rich Latin American countries like Chile, Argentina, and Brazil.
Strengthen cybersecurity protocols by promoting joint U.S.-ASEAN cybersecurity initiatives to safeguard regional infrastructure.
Collaborate with Europe on clean energy by fostering joint ventures in wind, solar, and battery technologies, ensuring that European allies can transition away from Chinese technology.
Asia-Pacific and ASEAN: Expanding U.S. Influence
The Asia-Pacific region is projected to account for 46% of global energy consumption by 2040. China’s growing influence in the region through infrastructure investments and energy partnerships poses a strategic challenge. By increasing LNG exports and fostering renewable energy collaborations, the U.S. can offer reliable alternatives to Chinese dominance.
Policy Actions:
Increase LNG exports to key Asia-Pacific allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Support renewable energy projects in ASEAN nations, ensuring they have secure, sustainable energy options.
Promote regional critical mineral processing in collaboration with allies like Australia and Japan.
Middle East: Recalibrating U.S. Engagement
With reduced dependence on Middle Eastern oil, the Trump administration has an opportunity to rethink America’s role in the region. Rather than focusing on securing oil supplies, the U.S. can shift towards protecting critical energy routes and supporting regional stability through intelligence sharing and capacity building.
Policy Actions:
Enhance ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) capabilities to help allies monitor and secure critical infrastructure.
Secure vital shipping lanes in the Gulf and Red Sea through joint naval operations.
Promote economic diversification in oil-dependent economies by encouraging investments in renewable energy and non-oil sectors.
Challenges and Mitigations
Despite its strategic advantages, the U.S. energy strategy faces several challenges:
Geopolitical Tensions: Aggressive U.S. energy policies could provoke retaliatory measures from rivals. Mitigation: Strengthen diplomatic engagements and emphasize mutual benefits in energy partnerships.
Reliability of Partnerships: Political instability in partner countries could undermine energy agreements. Mitigation: Develop adaptive strategies and diversify partnerships to reduce reliance on any single region.
Transitioning to Renewables: Scaling up renewable energy infrastructure poses logistical and financial challenges. Mitigation: Increase R&D investments in energy storage and grid modernization to enhance renewable reliability.
A Strategic Opportunity for U.S. Leadership
As the world transitions to a new energy paradigm, the Trump administration stands at a pivotal juncture. This is a moment to harness America’s energy dominance and resolidify its role as a global leader. The stakes couldn’t be higher — this is about securing our future, ensuring our prosperity, and keeping America first. By leveraging its shale production, securing critical mineral supply chains, and investing in green technology, America can reshape global power dynamics in its favor.
Author: Jacob Allsup, a Master's candidate in International Relations at Johns Hopkins SAIS (Class of 2025), specializes in strategy, cyber policy, and energy geopolitics. With experience in healthcare cybersecurity at CISA and business development, he is passionate about driving global security and innovation at the nexus of energy policy and emerging technologies.
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